Monday, September 7, 2009

My rant on "anthropomorphic" Global Warming religion

"You can lead a person to knowledge, but can't make them think" My own paraphrasing of an old adage. or, None so blind as those that will not see.

Here is a post that I made on realclimate (a pro AGW website). It was "moderated out". I was told that they stack the deck against skeptics, and now I know that to be true.

Matthew Orme says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
19 February 2010 at 9:51 PM

Start with this. CO2 is the building block for life. If we eliminated it, life (carbon based) would cease to exist.

Here is a simple truth. Climate models predicting AGW can/could not predict the past. (ie., plug in all the data, and get a “prediction” that matches what actually happened (warming in the 40’s, cooling in the 70’s, warming in the 80/90’s and nothing in the late 90’s to today (per Phil Jones, argue with him if you disagree).

BTW, the models do not include insolation as a variable. And we do not understand the role of clouds. Do they trap heat, or reflect sunlight? You have an opinion I am sure, but the science is uncertain.

If the models cannot explain what actually occurred, how can we rely on them to predict the future?

What does any credible scientist do when observations do not fit a theory? Throw out the theory. that’s the basis of science. Propose a theory, collect data, see if the data fits the theory, if not scrap the theory and come up with one where the data actually fits the model.

I became a skeptic the moment I saw the hockey stick graph. I have a degree in geology (an actually relevant science). I studied in the early 70’s and later in the 90’s. We studied the MWP, and LIA (remember CO2 is the basis for limestones etc). When those climate changes were “erased”, I knew that something was afoot. Geologists as a whole do not support a causal link between CO2 and Temp. The record actually shows that CO2 follows temp, with a lag of 800-1000 years. In 1000-1200 AD, there were vineyards in Northern England, and farming in Greenland.

It’s all about the money, not the human condition. IPCC predicts 130,000 additional deaths due to warming with a doubling of CO2. (feel free to correct my recollection if incorrect). However, taking the dirtiest/cheapest coal fired power plants, and building enough of them to provide electricity so that people that burn wood/dung indoors could cook with electricity would save 1.5 MILLION lives a year. That’s just from cooking, not all the other life shortening things that are due to lack of cheap energy. A simple cost/benefits analysis says that you do not invest trillions do do essentially nothing.

To quote a scientist, “lack of cheap energy makes for short brutal lives”

Freeman Dyson, physicist and member of the Institute for Advanced Study said, "The climate-studies people who work with models always tend to overestimate their models... They come to believe models are real and forget they are only models."[56] "My objections to the global warming propaganda are not so much over the technical facts, about which I do not know much, but it’s rather against the way those people behave and the kind of intolerance to criticism that a lot of them have."[57]

There is absolutely no evidence that CO2 drives temperature. When you take this assumption out of the picture, everything else falls apart. When you put incorrect assumptions into a computer model, you get false predictions.

Anyone with an open mind should watch the BBC special "The Great Global Warming Swindle" email me and I will be glad to lend you my copy. I watched an inconvenient truth, you should watch the counter argument. Here is a reprint of an article from the San Francisco Examiner (a republican hot bed if ever there was one) that summarizes the documentary

Global temperature has declined since 1998. Meanwhile, atmospheric carbon dioxide has gone in the other direction, increasing 15–20%. (see link below)

Has anyone noticed that the last couple winters have been particularly cold? Of course The Holy Church of Global Warming says that cold winters are evidence of Global warming. Nice isn't it. If it gets warmer, global warming. If it gets colder, global warming.

At no time during our planet's history have increases in CO2 preceded an increase in temp. In fact the following chart shows that compared to former geologic times, our present atmosphere, like the Late Carboniferous atmosphere, is CO2- impoverished! In the last 600 million years of Earth's history only the Carboniferous Period and our present age, the Quaternary Period, have witnessed CO2 levels less than 400 ppm. Click for a clearer image. (Black line = CO2, Blue line = Temp.)

This subject has now become a religion. Religions refuse to listen to anything that does not conform with the persons beliefs. Science differs because it constantly tests a hypothesis. Mann's "hockey stick" graph has now proven to be a fraud btw.

When the prophet Al Gore put up the CO2/Temp graph in his movie, he failed to tell viewers that CO2 lagged temperature by 800 to 1000 years. Paleoclimatologists believe that this is because it takes this long for the oceans to warm up/cool down. When the oceans warm up, they release gasses including CO2, and when the cool, they absorb gasses. This is why there is so much marine life in cold water.

Gore, by the way, owns a cap/trade brokerage house and stands to make a bundle. The Wall Street Journal summed it up by saying that Cap and Trade was a giant revenue generating machine exceeding income taxes, in the guise of saving the planet. No wonder the Dems are salivating over it. Read the article showing that it won't work here

In simple terms, CO2 rises because the temperature warms, not the other way around.

Guess how warm the planet was 1000 years ago. It was in the middle of the Medieval Warming Period. There were vineyards in northern England, and the Vikings were farming in Greenland. This was followed by the Little Ice Age, which caused the vikings to abandon Greenland, and life for Europeans was miserable. Look at the paintings during the period. The Thames river froze, as did the Delaware River (look at the painting of Washington crossing the Delaware). Neither of these rivers freeze today. Depending on who you believe, the Little Ice Age ended around 1900 (some put it as late as 1950). Guess what happens to the planet at the end of an Ice Age. It warms up (duh).

IPCC discounts both these as products of the Northern Hemisphere only, yet they are tracked in the Antarctic Ice cores (where the 1000 to 800 year CO2/temp lag is recorded). this is a perfect example of cognative dissonance. (Don't confuse me with the facts, my mind's made up)

One must also ask why water vapor is ignored by global warming alarmists. Water vapor constitutes 95% of the green house gas in the atmosphere, while CO2 makes up 3.6%.

Role of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases

(man-made and natural) as a % of Relative
Contribution to the "Greenhouse Effect"
Based on concentrations (ppb) adjusted for heat retention characteristics Percent of Total Percent of Total --adjusted for water vapor
Water vapor ----- 95.000%
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 72.369% 3.618%
Methane (CH4) 7.100% 0.360%
Nitrous oxide (N2O) 19.000% 0.950%
CFC's (and other misc. gases) 1.432% 0.072%
Total 100.000% 100.000%

Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas. If you get a fall evening and the sky is clear, heat will escape, the temperature will drop and you get frost. If there's cloud cover, the heat is trapped by water vapour as a greenhouse gas and the temperature stays warm. If you go to In Salah in southern Algeria, they recorded at noon 52°C. By midnight, it's -3.6°C. That’s a 56°C drop in temperature in 12 hours. It's caused because there is very little water vapour in the atmosphere and is a demonstration of water vapour as the most important greenhouse gas (source: Interview with Tim Ball). see this article

"During the 20th century, the earth warmed 0.6 degree Celsius (1 degree Fahrenheit), but that warming has been wiped out in a single year with a drop of 0.63 degree C. (1.13 F.) in 2007. A single year does not constitute a trend reversal, but the magnitude of that temperature drop — equal to 100 years of warming — is noteworthy. Of course, it can also be argued that a mere 0.6 degree warming in a century is so tiny it should never have been considered a cause for alarm in the first place. But then how could the idea of global warming be sold to the public? In any case, global cooling has been evident for more than a single year. Global temperature has declined since 1998. Meanwhile, atmospheric carbon dioxide has gone in the other direction, increasing 15–20%. This divergence casts doubt on the validity of the greenhouse hypothesis, but that hasn't discouraged the global warming advocates. They have long been ignoring far greater evidence that the basic assumption of greenhouse warming from increases in carbon dioxide is false."

Now take a look at insolation. The chart below shows the sun's output over time. Notice how well it tracks historical temperatures, and what the relative output is today. This graph speaks for itself.

People just love catastrophic reasons for change. As a geologist who studied paleontology, I never believed in the asteroid dinosaur killer either. There is just no evidence that all the dinosaurs just dropped dead one Tuesday afternoon. I believe that they died as a result of the planet calming down, which slowly cut atmospheric oxygen by half. During the dinosaurs reign, volcanic activity was extremely high, spewing out lots of CO2. This caused a major growth in plant life, who converted the CO2 into O2. Atmospheric oxygen was double what it is today. Dinosaurs do not have diaphragms like mammals, but breath like birds. It takes a lot of O2 to run an engine the size of a Seismosaurus, and essentially, they suffocated (slowly over time as the fossil record shows) Mammals can survive with much less O2, since they can easily breath in more air.

I'm tired of writing. more later.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

317 W Blaine, Seattle WA, 1976

Here are some photos of the gang at 317. The house is at the top of Queen Anne Hill in Seattle. It's surrounded by everything. After college, I moved in with some college friends. John Streeter, David Baker (deceased unfortunately), Dana Woodward, Brooks Burford, Bill Spaulding, and a few others. It is where I lived for the first year or 2 when I was working at Speakerlab. I finished a room for myself in the basement.

I checked out the street view on Google maps, and it looks exactly the same today as it did then.

We all drank nothing but Olympia beer since John's step father worked at the brewery in Tumwater, and saved up the bottles. We cashed in a years collection in order to buy a keg. We threw an end of the 1976 summer party, just before John Streeter left to go to Loyola Law School in LA.

We measured the success of parties by how many people "slept it off". In the morning, there were 18 people crashed all over the house.

John Streeter, Matthew Orme, Brooks Burford

John Streeter, Matthew Orme

Ray Sundstrom, who took most of the photos

John Streeter, Matthew Orme

John Streeter, William Spaulding

Brooks Burford, Matthew Orme, John Streeter

Brooks Burford, Matthew Orme, John Streeter

The Usual Suspects

My Second 1964 MGB in British Racing Green. You can barely see my first one in the Delta Tau Delta Fraternity parking lot around 1972. There is lots of room even for a tall guy like me. I wish I could buy another one today. Note that these are both MK1 (the first) versions of the MGB. Chrome Bumpers, a 3 main bearing engine, Smith Electrics, 2 x 6V batteries in series with a positive ground, wire wheels, twin SU side draft carbs, generators instead of alternators, etc. A great car, easy to work on and a lot of fun to drive. I could pull the head, get it ground, and replaced with the car running again in a day. Both cars I had were early 1964 models. Today I would look for a 1964 1/2 to 1966 model, the engine was upgraded to 5 main bearings. Anything before 1974 when pollution/safety standards mucked up the car and the chrome bumpers were replaced with ugly rubber ones. Here is a guy restoring a 1973.

More of the crew.

Empties loaded in the pick up to take to the recyclers.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Delt days at WSU

Here is what Steve Tytler, Class of '78, says about the Washington State University Epsilon Gamma chapter of Delta Tau Delta about the "Golden Age" of the 1970's. "It was called the "Golden Age because it was a time when WSU authorities literally let the students run wild on campus! There was NO attempt to enforce laws against underage drinking. We actually had kegs of beer on the front lawn of the Delt house -- right across the street from the WSU President's house -- and nobody cared! It was a great time to be in college."

I am trying to find more pix of WSU, but these are all I could find at the moment.

My boys, Michael and Alex are "legacies" and can join any chapter of Delta Tau Delta they want, if the Greek way appeals to them.

Photos courtesy of

An attempt to Study.

What every frat guy needs, a well stocked bar

My high school Sweetheart Barbara Long. The gal by which all others in my life were measured. I'm sure that she made the costumes for the Fraternity costume party. I still have some of the ties she made. Now a grade school teacher in Klamath falls Oregon, with grown kids and grand kids I think. The worst thing that happened to me was chasing her away. Probably best for her though. She wanted the white picket fence, and I wanted adventure. It would be really nice to see her again while I am still around.

My friend Bruce Eliott. We had a bar in the house called the Slipper Inn. Quarter beers for anyone in the house.

the keg

Sunday, June 21, 2009

SpeakerLab Days

I worked for SpeakerLab in the University District of Seattle from 6/1975 to 6/1979. I met one of my best friends Garth, there, and we remain good friends today. At 22, I looked pretty geeky, but after I got contacts and a hair cut, it was a bit better.

Here are a few photos

This one was taken in the house I rented with Chris Pisarcik (Gal) some time around 1977 in the University District in Seattle. It was 2 blocks from the Speakerlab store I worked in which was on the corner of NE 50th and Roosevelt Way. 816 NE 53rd St Seattle WA 98105

Around the same time in the SpeakerLab stors at the speaker re-coning dept.

Garth at the controls in the sound-room in the Lynwood store he managed.

Garth at the sales counter

Lunchtime beer in the stock room.

Me with a Pethouse Pet (promotion at the Lynwood store) around 1978/1979

Anyone with photos from this era, please email them to me.